Breakthrough Technology Markets are Made Not Found

Fresh out of business school and in my new job running and selling customer satisfaction, technology market research projects, I paid a sales call to Oracle. I visited a Sr. VP and was appalled at his arrogance. He had the gall to say that customer opinions did not matter--what mattered were the strength of the ideas and concepts behind the products and services. I was certain that the exec was daft and that Oracle would soon "hit the wall".

Having worked on the technology vendor side for many years now, I have largely changed my perspective to mirror that Oracle exec's viewpoint. Sure there are technology markets that are "found" by focusing on known targets and then by excavating those niches. But I can't come up with one, very big, world changing technology idea that was generated because Marketing people did research, identified a need, and then went forth to create a product or service. Nope, big markets are made NOT found. IBM's early computer, Netscape's browser, Yahoo's search business, and Apple's iPhone are examples of innovations that stood as much chance to fail as they did to become game-changing initiatives. More to the point, no amount of upfront market research could have predicted the product requirements and the outlines of the market opportunity. These innovations were driven by imaginative visionaries driven by inspiration rather than analysis.

Generally, great innovations are so unique that they cannot be "tested" against market expectations. The market must first be introduced to the product and educated about it before prospects can make intelligent comments on the attractiveness of the technology. Hence, market research and analysis play little or no role in the making of the biggest technology hits.

So, if markets are made, then what role does Marketing play with regard to innovation? That answer may be different depending on whether an innovation is meant for consumer or business audiences. And I'll plan to explore this topic in a future blog post.

Oh, and I have finally stopped holding my breath while waiting for Oracle to implode....